Justin Fields
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Bears Game Day: We Rock the Party, We Rock the House

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterNovember 13, 2022

Young and old gather ’round, and everybody hail the new king in town.

I’m not here to praise Justin Fields because he’s on the verge of becoming a generational NFL talent. I am here, however, to thank him for making Chicago a party town on Sundays again. For an old-timer like me, football hasn’t been this fun since the 1985 Bears destroyed the NFL en route to a Super Bowl championship. And get this – the Bears aren’t even winning…yet.

Further, Fields is doing it with a makeshift offensive line and a wide receiver corps that makes him the envy of nobody. Chicago’s defense is atrocious, too, but QB1 has kept his teammates in each of the last two games no matter how often the opponent scores. If you’ve lost track, Dallas and Miami have combined for 12 touchdowns in the Bears’ previous 120 minutes of football.

Amazingly, Chicago had a chance to win both games, all thanks to their second-year quarterback. Luke Getsy is amazed, and nobody’s talking about Bears’ running backs David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. Why should they? Fields is the team’s leading rusher with 602 yards on 91 carries.

It was like, ‘Holy cow.’ But not with that type of talk,” Getsy said of Fields’ 61-yard touchdown run. “It was a pretty unbelievable play. Once he got to a certain point and I saw Darnell Mooney in a position to be able to cut the guy off, I was like, ‘There’s no way anyone’s catching that guy.’ So it was pretty cool.”

I’ve seen the future and it will be…The party has returned to Soldier Field for the first time in a long while. Go, go, go with a smile!

The Bears are favored by two and a hook today. The money line is -145 (bet $145 straight up to win $100), and the over/under is 48.5. I’m taking the Bears minus the points and betting the over for sure.

Field Conditions

It will be 37 degrees at kickoff under very sunny skies. Winds will be WNW at 10-15 mph, and the weather will not be a factor. The field should be fast, which will be a decided advantage for the Bears.

Bears Trends

The Bears have destroyed the over in their previous three games, winning one of the three. Chicago has become an offense-first team, something the team’s fans aren’t used to seeing. The Bears have lost two straight, but have the ability to score at will now that Luke Getsy has tailored his offense to the strengths of his quarterback. The Bears have scored 94 points in their previous three games after scoring just 93 in their first six. They enter the game with a record of 3-6, good for second place in the NFC North. While it feels unlikely, the Bears are only 1.5 games out of the final NFC Wild Card.

Fields set the quarterback record for most rushing yards in a single game last week when he rushed for 178 yards on 15 carries. He probably won’t match that today, but Jalen Hurts did rush for 90 yards in a Week 1 38-35 win over the Lions.  The Bears quarterback is averaging about 77 yards on 11 carries since Getsy added designed runs into Chicago’soffense. Detroit will struggle to contain Fields today.

There is a clear mismatch here for the Bears to exploit as the Lions rank 26th in rush defense and 28th in yards per carry allowed. The Bears rank second in the NFL in yards per carry on the ground.  I would expect Getsy to devise a run-centric game plan centered around Fields, while both Herbert and Montgomery divvy up the running back touches. The Bears are averaging 195 yards on the ground with a +1 overall turnover ratio.

Lions Trends

Detroit is the polar opposite of Chicago. The Lions scored 140 points in their first four games, but only 48 points in four games since. They beat the Packers 15-9 last week and picked off Aaron Rodgers three times in the red zone. The two teams have played against six common opponents this season, with the Lions going 2-4 straight up (3-3 against the spread) in those contests and the Bears 1-5 SU (2-3-1 ATS). Of note, the over has won in four of Chicago’s last five games, and in five of Detroit’s previous eight.

The Lions feature two stud playmakers on offense – RB D’Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown – and both are healthy and ready to go, which should make life much easier for QB Jared Goff. Swift is angry that he hasn’t had many touches, but the Bears are horrendous against the run and play-action. He may have a breakout game today, though I expect Jamal Williams to get the bulk of the carries. The Lions have converted 39.6% of third-down attempts and are -3 in takeaways.

Detroit’s defense played well last week but the unit has been mediocre all season. The Lions tend to struggle against dual-threat quarterbacks, and won’t have an easy time stopping Fields.

Why the Bears Will Win

Don’t look now, but the Bears have scored at least 29 points in three-straight games, with two of those contests coming on the road against the Cowboys and Patriots. They lost 35-32 to the Dolphins despite a record-breaking effort by Fields. The Bears have been so good since Getsy opened up the offense that they have the ability to score with each possession. Though Detroit’s defense stepped up against the Packers, they’ll have no answer for Chicago’s ground game.

Fields has become fantastic at hiding the ball, so expect big games from Mooney and Chase Claypool on play-action. He’s also getting rid of the ball much quicker. Since Week 7, Fields is averaging 2.85 seconds to throw. He also has the best QBR (99.3) in the NFL during that span when opposing defenses get a pass rush win. Claypool will be used as a deep threat today, and with Byron Pringle returning this will be the first game that Chicago has all of its playmaking weapons healthy.

The Bears have struggled on defense, especially since trading Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith. They should fare better against Goff, and if Chicago can jump out to an early lead, Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker, Eddie Jackson, and Jaylon Johnson should feast. If the Bears win the turnover battle, they could win in a laugher.

Dominique Robinson may start today, which would give Chicago four rookie starters on defense, including Gordon, Brisker, and Jack Sanborn. Brisker leads the Bears with three sacks. The rookie safety also has three TFLs, one interception, and one fumble recovery. Justin Jones has been Chicago’s most consistent defensive lineman. Trevis Gipson sorely needs a breakout game.

Why the Lions Will Win

If last week’s game was a turning point for their defense, Detroit could make things tough for Chicago. The Lions held the Packers to three field goals in four red zone opportunities last Sunday. But the key for the Lions will be getting their offense untracked. A run-and-shoot game will favor Detroit as long as the offense can avoid turning the ball over.

Goff struggled against the Green Bay defense last week because the Packers lead the NFL in QB pressure percentage. The Bears, on the other hand, sit 29th in that category, meaning Goff should have a clean pocket for the majority of his dropbacks. Chicago sits 28th in rush defense and 30th in pass defense. Goff, Swift, St. Brown, and Williams must exploit the Bears’ defense to win this game.

DE Aidan Hutchinson is one of the best rookies in the league. He has 4.5 sacks, three TFLs, 14 pressures, and nine quarterback hits, and one interception (his first at ANY level of football). He’ll line up against rookie Braxton Jones most of the time. Linebacker Alex Anzalone leads the Lions with 62 tackles and is second to Hutchinson with 1.5 sacks. Derrick Barnes and/or Malcolm Rodriguez (if he plays) will be assigned to spy Fields.

Injuries

  • Bears – Cornerback Kindle Vildor (ankle) is out and defensive end Al-Quadin Muhammed (knee) is doubtful. Johnson (oblique) and right guard Teven Jenkins (hip) are questionable for today’s game.
  • Lions – Wide receiver Josh Reynolds (back) is out and offensive tackle Matt Nelson (calf) is doubtful. Starters Rodriguez (elbow), and safety Kerby Joseph (concussion) are listed as questionable. Cornerback Chase Lucas (ankle) and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu (ankle) are also questionable.

Predictions

Our own Sean Holland previewed today’s game on Friday, and he predicts a 31-21 win for Chicago. I have the Bears winning 35-16 thanks to a big advantage in sacks and takeaways. Fields will have another big game, but I’m expecting Chicago’s secondary to really shine. Brisker and Gordon get better each time out, and today could represent a pair of nig breakouts for the rookie defensive backs. Montgomery, Herbert, Claypool, and Mooney will factor in the decisive win.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterNovember 13, 2022
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